The box office around Episode IX is clearing, in the last month Wonder Woman 1984, James Bond 25 and Death on the Nile have all moved to 2020. Earlier this week the Tim Miller-directed and James Cameron-produced Terminator reboot has moved forward from November 15, 2019 to November 1, 2019, and Sony’s Charlie’s Angels reboot moves to the same date vacated by Wonder Woman 1984. This leaves Episode IX an almost clear run for the December 20th date, Forbes.com take a closer look.
If the Arnold Schwarzenegger/Linda Hamilton Terminator reboot was going to qualify as competition (Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them earned 86.5% of its $234 million cume by the time Rogue One: A Star Wars Story debuted) opening the weekend before Thanksgiving, it’s that much less of a challenge opening on November 1. Thor: Ragnarok had earned 96% of its $324 million cume by the time The Last Jedi debuted. You could say the same thing about the untitled 25th James Bond flick, but that’s still around $200m in domestic tickets not purchased by folks who now might see Star Wars 9 sooner rather than later. Wonder Woman 1984 may also have earned most of its money by Dec. 19, but that’s still potentially (spitball guess) $350m-$450m to be spent elsewhere.
The Star Wars franchise can indeed be affected by potent competition. Spider-Man’s stunning $114 million debut and leggy $403m domestic run put a hurt on Star Wars Episode Two: Attack of the Clones ($310m) in the summer of 2002. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($403m from a $36m Fri-Sun frame) and The Greatest Showman ($174m from an $8.8m Fri-Sun debut) did a number on The Last Jedi last Christmas, specifically because the Star Wars movie wasn’t the only big game in town. The Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart/Jack Black/Karen Gillan action comedy and the Hugh Jackman/Zac Efron/Michelle Williams musical were both kid-targeted entertainments that took money that otherwise might have gone to a second or third The Last Jedi screening, especially when fewer folks go to the movies just to go to the movies.
It would seem the path to Episode IX is being made clear, it just needs to live up to everyone’s expectations.
